Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.329785 4.003955 4.756917 5.656876 6.699739 7.866536 9.267000
2025-03-23 2.353651 3.252328 4.376034 5.868096 7.778941 10.124171 13.197733
2025-03-30 1.701913 2.661679 3.986084 5.908245 8.580332 12.110964 17.065374
2025-04-06 1.270647 2.223244 3.658275 5.907791 9.259097 13.964961 20.943586
2025-04-13 0.971007 1.885437 3.377693 5.882965 9.847136 15.710328 24.818000
2025-04-20 0.843167 1.786950 3.432490 6.352986 11.201059 18.669038 30.692445
2025-04-27 0.701859 1.623179 3.337564 6.547951 12.125445 21.050443 35.904141
2025-05-04 0.599402 1.504159 3.291824 6.806216 13.165058 23.687610 41.714110
2025-05-11 0.489294 1.337260 3.119589 6.800516 13.736677 25.601337 46.510471
2025-05-18 0.381334 1.141808 2.847809 6.555577 13.837893 26.718054 50.067702
2025-05-25 0.290796 0.957898 2.558122 6.220095 13.715495 27.415911 52.946777
2025-06-01 0.236154 0.848440 2.407940 6.142517 14.065413 28.962261 57.382126
2025-06-08 0.187016 0.738820 2.237963 6.004898 14.301479 30.363718 61.754247
2025-06-15 0.168343 0.715923 2.278849 6.351020 15.573660 33.818224 70.108992
2025-06-22 0.142018 0.657666 2.214548 6.439673 16.310335 36.307230 76.861231
2025-06-29 0.117805 0.596288 2.126888 6.455816 16.888446 38.529692 83.265392
2025-07-06 0.096895 0.537450 2.031567 6.435039 17.377956 40.609061 89.531727
2025-07-13 0.092271 0.543605 2.133523 6.944919 19.137222 45.401871 101.362645
2025-07-20 0.081186 0.516514 2.125138 7.156261 20.216745 48.861711 110.772529
2025-07-27 0.072810 0.497998 2.140466 7.435323 21.485884 52.807636 121.381092
2025-08-03 0.060748 0.454500 2.060238 7.429290 22.056306 55.299547 129.196735
2025-08-10 0.047218 0.393889 1.901843 7.164964 21.948291 56.304357 134.021224
2025-08-17 0.035384 0.333218 1.723100 6.802713 21.540757 56.604660 137.385254